UA Ledger · Measurement Lab · draft for review

Creative fatigue as a decay curve: labelled teaching data, not a market law

Synthetic teaching inputs. No real campaign results or industry defaults. Change the values to inspect the model. Calculations run locally; this page sends no data.

Enter baseline IPM at frequency one, observed IPM at a later frequency, and that later frequency. Compute a constant per-step multiplier that connects the two points. Apply it only as a scenario, not as a forecast.

Calculated outputs

Assumption sensitivity

Only ipmN varies; all other inputs are held constant. This is not a probability range.

Equations

• Per-step multiplier: Math.pow(ipmN/ipm1,1/(freq-1))
• Implied IPM at frequency 2: ipm1*Math.pow(ipmN/ipm1,1/(freq-1))

Constraints: (freq>1).

Limits

Two points cannot identify a true decay process. Auction mix, audience exhaustion and creative concept changes are out of scope.

About frequency capping · documentation cited 19 September 2026.