The Ledger #7: A Q1 M&A Rebound and a Ruling to Watch

This mobile UA news roundup for April 2025 opens with a quarter of dealmaking behind us and a closely watched antitrust decision still ahead.

Q1's M&A rebound, in three deals

Early Q1 roundups from Drake Star and InvestGame are calling the quarter a tentative rebound, built mostly on MTG's roughly $620 million purchase of Plarium, AppLovin's move to sell its Apps business to Tripledot for a package reported around $900 million, and Niantic's confirmed $3.5 billion sale of its games catalogue to Scopely. What it means for buyers: three specific, structurally different transactions, not evidence that mid-size studio valuations are broadly recovering. Watch each acquirer's integration decisions rather than the aggregate deal count.

A third short report lands on AppLovin

Muddy Waters published a third short-seller report on AppLovin in late March, this time focused on e-commerce attribution and data practices, following the Fuzzy Panda and Culper reports from February. What it means for buyers: the allegations are about AppLovin's ad-tech data practices and disclosures, not its bidding performance for advertisers today, but the sustained scrutiny is a reason to keep alternative demand sources warm rather than concentrated.

Unity Vector's migration keeps moving

Unity's rebuilt AI ad model, unveiled at GDC as Vector, is now in its post-GDC migration phase, with Unity signalling a phased rollout through the second quarter. What it means for buyers: campaigns still running on the legacy Unity Ads stack should get a migration timeline from their account team now, before Vector becomes the only option and testing has to happen under deadline pressure.

TikTok pushes Smart+ further

TikTok continues expanding Smart+, its automated campaign tooling for app advertisers, adding more of the audience and creative decisions that used to sit with a buyer's own targeting choices. What it means for buyers: treat Smart+ as another automated bidding system to benchmark against manual structures with a genuine holdout, not as a default to switch into because a rep recommended it.

A ruling to watch

A verdict in the Justice Department's ad tech case against Google, argued last year over publisher ad server and exchange markets, could land within weeks. What it means for buyers: any finding against Google's ad tech stack would move slowly through a remedies phase rather than change bidding overnight, but it is worth having a contingency note ready for the next planning cycle regardless of which way it goes.