The Ledger #21: A Settlement and Earnings Week Roundup

Three stories anchor this settlement earnings week roundup, and each of them lands on a UA budget from a different direction.

This week's roundup

• Google and Epic filed a proposed settlement this week that would cut Google's Play Store commission to a range of 9% to 20% and register rival app stores globally, not just in the US. Judge Donato was reportedly unconvinced by parts of the filing at this week's hearing, pushing final resolution into next year. What it means for buyers: keep current Play Store fee assumptions in any 2026 model until the terms are actually approved, not merely proposed.
• AppLovin reported Q3 revenue in the region of $1.41 billion, beating its own prior guidance, while Unity's Q3 update pointed to continued growth in its Vector ad product from a considerably smaller base. What it means for buyers: AppLovin's holiday CPMs are unlikely to soften on their own, and Unity remains a testing allocation rather than a primary one heading into December.
• Liftoff is reportedly preparing a confidential filing for a 2026 initial public offering, according to people familiar with the process. What it means for buyers: nothing changes in Liftoff's product today, but a vendor preparing for public markets tends to prioritise growth metrics over pricing flexibility in the run-up, which is worth watching in your next renewal conversation.
• Both AppLovin's and Unity's results arrived the same week the settlement news broke, which is not a coincidence so much as the calendar simply front-loading November with everything at once. Treat that clustering as a reminder that earnings season and platform litigation news do not politely take turns.

That's a full docket. A courtroom filing shares the week with two earnings reports plus an IPO rumour, which is more than most fortnights on this beat manage to produce. The settlement is the thread least likely to have resolved by the time this roundup returns, given how far apart the filed terms and the judge's stated scepticism appeared to sit at this week's hearing. Liftoff's filing deserves the same watch. Neither will move a December budget on its own, but both set the terms of the 2026 conversation.

Related archive reading

• The Ledger #20: Play Compliance and a Q4 Earnings Preview
• The Ledger #10: Q1 earnings and a stalled Fortnite return