The Ledger #23: A Year-End Signals Roundup

Four items worth tracking as the year closes, in this fortnight's year-end signals roundup.

Q4 earnings calendar ahead

AppLovin and Unity won't report Q4 and full-year 2025 results until February; nor will Digital Turbine. Buyers should already be pencilling in what to watch. Does AppLovin's advertising growth rate hold without an Apps business behind it? Does Unity's Vector-driven Ad Network keep gaining share of Grow revenue? Has Digital Turbine's On Device restructuring stabilised? What it means for buyers: build your Q1 network review around these three questions now, so that the actual earnings calls in February are confirmation rather than discovery.

Japan's Act countdown

Japan's Mobile Software Competition Act reaches full effect on December 18. From that date Apple and Google must open alternative app stores and payment options in the Japanese market, and compliance mechanics from both platforms have been trickling out ahead of the deadline. What it means for buyers: any campaign or measurement plan touching Japan needs a contingency for a payment flow that may not match the rest of your APAC setup by the new year.

Vector rollout news

Unity kept expanding its rebuilt Vector ad model with new partner integrations through December, building on the Ad Network share gains it reported at the Q2 and Q3 updates. What it means for buyers: if Vector sat on your "watch, don't commit" list earlier in the year, the rollout has run long enough now that a small test budget is reasonable. Waiting isn't.

Holiday chart moves close out the year-end signals roundup

Monopoly GO!, Royal Match and Coin Master all pushed hard into the top of the holiday charts this month; Whiteout Survival and Last War did the same, per the usual ad-intelligence trackers, and no new entrant displaced any of them. What it means for buyers: December's competitive set is the one you've been bidding against since the summer. Budget accordingly rather than expecting softer competition over the holidays.