ISBN delay: cost of a slipped China UA start (reader dates)

China paid UA that assumes an ISBN “next month” is a schedule risk, not a media optimisation. NZ MFAT’s September 2026 guide states that NPPA does not publish approval timeframes and that the process can take from a few months to up to a year or longer, with monthly public lists as the main visibility mechanism. The NPPA domestic approval index confirms dated monthly publication of results. The administrative item 出版国产网络游戏作品审批 states an 80 working-day processing period from acceptance—planning context, not a promise that any named title clears in 80 days.

Worksheet definition (reader supplies dates and costs)

Enter:

• planned_ua_start — date China paid UA was booked to begin
• revised_ua_start — date UA can legally start after ISBN + store listing
• slip_days = revised − planned
• monthly_fixed_burn — labelled team / localisation / server / agency retainer the reader actually carries while blocked (not an industry average)
• idle_fixed_cost ≈ monthly_fixed_burn × slip_days / 30

Do not enter a guessed CPI or “market ROAS.” Media cost is zero until spend is allowed; the sheet prices idle fixed cost and optional booked-but-unspent media only if the reader’s insertion orders bill regardless of flight.

Synthetic example (labelled)

Use the CSV to drop in your own dates. Pair with the live NPPA index pointer rather than a frozen month.

Facts versus limits

Draft prepared 20 September 2026. Local expansion-500 file; human editorial review pending. No CMS write.