Concept farm capacity: weekly new hooks needed to hold CPI
Illustrative worksheet for weekly concept volume versus creative death rate. Not an industry CPI average.
Midcore UA often fails when spend scales faster than the concept farm replaces dying hooks. This worksheet uses illustrative inputs. It does not invent a genre CPI or a market creative half-life.
Define the calculation before using it
Enter active always-on concepts at week start (C0), weekly concept death rate (d), weekly net new concepts shipped (n), and target active concepts required to hold your internal CPI band (T). Compute C1 = max(0, C0*(1-d) + n) and capacity gap G = T - C1. Positive G means you are short under these assumptions.
AppsFlyer’s attribution model documents that install timing and matching rules affect how media results are counted. Keep creative tests on a shared install definition; do not paste a vendor “creative volume benchmark” into d or T.
Work through the synthetic example
| Input | Synthetic value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Active concepts week start (`C0`) | 40 | illustrative |
| Weekly death rate (`d`) | 0.25 | illustrative |
| New concepts shipped (`n`) | 8 | illustrative |
| Target active concepts (`T`) | 36 | illustrative |
| Output | Result |
|---|---|
| Survivors before new ship | 30.0000 |
| Active concepts next week (`C1`) | 38.0000 |
| Capacity gap (`T - C1`) | -2.0000 |
Under this example you sit two concepts above target. Set n to 4 and the gap becomes +2.0000 (short). Teaching numbers only.
Facts versus limits
| Field | Evidence |
|---|---|
| Formula | `C1 = C0*(1-d)+n`; `G = T-C1` |
| Industry average death rate | Not claimed |
| Observed campaign CPI | Not included |
Download the worksheet CSV. Replace every synthetic cell with your studio tracker before a budget meeting.
