Incrementality-adjusted payback worksheet for always-on F2P
Always-on spend needs an incrementality haircut on attributed ROAS. Illustrative worksheet — not a vendor lift study.
Always-on F2P UA that scales on attributed ROAS alone will overstate payback wherever organic substitution is high. Apply an explicit incremental fraction from a dated holdout — never invent one.
Definitions
AppsFlyer attribution credits a media source when an interaction is recorded; organic means no such interaction was recorded — it is not a causal baseline. Retargeting inactivity windows exist to raise the incremental lift of retargeting by excluding recently active users; they are not a substitute for a geo or user holdout.
Synthetic worksheet
| Input | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Attributed revenue | $50,000 | illustrative |
| Spend | $40,000 | illustrative |
| Incremental fraction | 0.55 | illustrative from your holdout |
| Attributed ROAS | 1.25 | calculated |
| Incrementality-adjusted ROAS | 0.6875 | calculated |
Facts vs limits
| Fact | Limit |
|---|---|
| Attribution ≠ incrementality | Incremental fraction must come from a real test design |
| Inactivity filters help retargeting hygiene | Not a causal lift estimate for always-on UA |
CSV.
