Payer concentration stress test: top 1% share vs UA scale plan (labelled synthetic)
Synthetic stress test for whale-heavy titles: what happens to D7 revenue if top 1% payer share compresses while UA scale rises. No invented industry concentration band.
Scaling UA into whale-heavy titles without a concentration stress test is a common failure mode. This sheet does not publish an industry top-1% share. It uses illustrative concentration bands and MMP revenue event hygiene (ad revenue attribution guide for IAA; your purchase event for IAP).
Equations
top1_revenue = total_d7_revenue * top1_sharenon_top1_revenue = total_d7_revenue - top1_revenue- Stress: replace
top1_sharewithtop1_share_stressed(reader input, lower). stressed_total = total_d7_revenue * (1 - top1_share) / (1 - top1_share_stressed) * (1 - top1_share_stressed) + total_d7_revenue * top1_share_stressed
Simpler teaching form used here: keep non-top1 fixed, shrink top1:stressed_total = non_top1_revenue + top1_revenue * (top1_share_stressed / top1_share)revenue_per_install_base = total_d7_revenue / installsrevenue_per_install_stressed = stressed_total / (installs * scale_factor)when spend/installs scale byscale_factorwhile concentration worsens.
Synthetic example
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Installs | 100000 |
| Total D7 revenue | 200000 |
| top1_share | 0.45 |
| top1_share_stressed | 0.30 |
| scale_factor | 1.5 |
top1_revenue = 90000; non_top1 = 110000
stressed_total = 110000 + 90000 × (0.30/0.45) = 110000 + 60000 = 170000
RPI base = 2.00; RPI after scale+stress = 170000 / 150000 = 1.1333
| Output | Result |
|---|---|
| rpi_base | 2.0000 |
| stressed_total | 170000 |
| rpi_stressed_scaled | 1.1333 |
Facts versus limits
| Fact | Limit |
|---|---|
| Method is reproducible | Concentration bands are illustrative, not market facts |
| MMP events organise revenue | Do not invent Deconstructor-style averages here |
Download the CSV.
