Keep downside visible beside an expected creative-project surplus
An expected value can be positive while a project loses money in a plausible downside case. A reproducible illustrative example with editable inputs and explicit limits.
An expected value can be positive while a project loses money in a plausible downside case. This worksheet places two scenarios beside their probability-weighted average. Probabilities are explicit assumptions; the output does not recommend commissioning the project or establish the team’s tolerance for a loss.
Define the calculation before using it
Weight success and downside contribution by the entered success probability and its complement. Subtract project cost, then preserve the surplus in the downside case separately. A real project can have many outcomes and dependencies across the creative slate, so this two-case model should remain a transparent simplification.
Work through the synthetic example
A 5,000-unit project with contribution of 10,000 in success and 1,000 in the downside, weighted at 60% success, has expected contribution of 6,400 and expected surplus of 1,400. The downside still loses 4,000. Reporting only the positive expectation hides a funding consequence a responsible reviewer needs to see.
| Output | Worked-example result |
|---|---|
| Expected contribution | 6400.0000 |
| Expected surplus | 1400.0000 |
| Downside surplus | -4000.0000 |
Use the artifact and preserve its assumptions
Open the editable calculator to change the inputs and inspect the sensitivity view. The CSV records synthetic inputs and expected outputs; the JSON fixture keeps the equations available for reproduction. These calculations have been checked against the stated example. No measured campaign data is included.
The sensitivity rows vary only probability by 20% below and above the entered value. They are scenarios, not confidence limits or a forecast distribution. A row outside the model’s constraints is labelled rather than turned into a plausible-looking result. Save the chosen inputs with the decision so another reader can distinguish a changed assumption from a changed formula.
Evidence and limits
Google distinguishes average daily budgets from campaign total budgets. This planning worksheet does not itself set a platform limit; verify the campaign’s actual budget mechanism before translating a plan into account settings. See Budgets overview, especially “Average daily budgets and spending limits; Other types of budgets”.
No probabilities are estimated from production history. A positive expectation does not guarantee positive realised value or account for cash constraints and alternative uses of resources.
Background: Annual and quarterly UA budget planning and A Q4 UA Budget Planning Checklist Before the Rush. These existing articles provide context; the present calculation does not verify every archived claim.
