First-purchase offer holdout: synthetic teaching set
Synthetic holdout lab for first-purchase offers using AppsFlyer in-app events as the revenue definition page.
A first-purchase offer without a holdout confuses discount response with baseline payer conversion. Use AppsFlyer in-app events to define the purchase event. This lab is a illustrative set.
Define the calculation
Payer conversion = payers / installs. Incremental payers = holdout gap × treatment installs. Incremental revenue = incremental payers × ARPPU assumption.
Synthetic example
Treatment payer rate 6.0%, holdout 4.0%, treatment installs 10,000 → incremental payers 200. ARPPU 12 → incremental revenue 2,400. Offer cost (discount depth × payers) is a separate finance input — not invented here as an industry average.
| Output | Worked-example result |
|---|---|
| Incremental payer pp | 2.0000 |
| Incremental payers | 200.0000 |
| Incremental revenue | 2400.0000 |
Limits
All figures synthetic. AppsFlyer defines event logging, not your holdout design ethics or sample-size needs.
