Using predicted LTV in bids: disclosure checklist for the UA team

Bidding on predicted LTV without saying so turns a model error into a “channel” failure.

Disclosure checklist

1. Observed vs predicted — State whether the bid target uses observed af_revenue (events overview) or a forecast.
2. SKAN modelled rows — If the SKAN overview modelled metrics (null-CV fill) enter the target, say so explicitly.
3. Training scope — Write geo, platform, and genre mix the model saw.
4. Failure modes — List known breaks (ATT opt-in shock, new geo, new creative hook).
5. Change control — No silent definition swap mid A/B.

Facts vs limits

CSV.

Draft prepared 20 September 2026. Local expansion-500 file; human editorial review pending. No CMS write.