The Ledger #15: AppLovin Unity Earnings Preview 2025

AppLovin and Unity both report second-quarter results tomorrow, and the questions worth watching go well beyond whether either company beats a consensus estimate.

What AppLovin needs to show

AppLovin's advertising business has posted growth rates in the seventies percent range year on year through its recent quarters, and the open question for tomorrow is whether that rate is holding or beginning to decelerate as the AXON engine's automated bidding matures against a larger base. A deceleration would not be a crisis for a company of AppLovin's scale, but it would be the first real test of whether the growth story since the Apps business divestiture to Tripledot can sustain its current multiple.

What Unity needs to show

Unity's Vector model, its rebuilt AI-driven ad product unveiled at GDC in March, has been migrating through a phased rollout, and tomorrow's report is the first real chance to see what share of the Grow segment it has captured and whether that share is translating into revenue growth rather than just internal reallocation. The Ledger #13 and The Ledger #14 both tracked the broader ad-tech consolidation story around AppLovin and Tripledot; Unity's numbers tomorrow are the other half of the picture, showing whether the sector's second-largest mobile ad network is closing the gap or falling further behind.

Digital Turbine's timing, a smaller but relevant question

Digital Turbine's fiscal Q1 2026 results are expected around the same window, and the question there is less about growth than stabilisation, whether the restructuring the company has been working through is translating into a steadier on-device business or still working through the effects of a weak prior year.

What it means for buyers

Nothing changes for a media plan before tomorrow's numbers land. What is worth doing today is writing down what a UA team currently assumes about AppLovin's growth trajectory and Unity's Vector share, so tomorrow's results can be read against an actual prior expectation rather than reinterpreted after the fact to fit whatever the numbers turn out to be.