SKAN null-rate impact on F2P bid models without inventing a market average
Illustrative lab applying an observed null rate to an intended bid. Does not invent an industry SKAN null average.
Apple documents that conversion-value appears only if provided and if privacy thresholds are met (postback parameters). A bid model that treats every install as revenue-informed will overstate expected value when many postbacks omit CV. Enter your observed null rate; do not paste a vendor chart.
Define the calculation before using it
expected_value = bid * (1 - null_rate) + residual * null_rate. Residual is often 0 unless you have a separate model for nulls.
Work through the synthetic example
| Input | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Intended bid | 1.50 | illustrative |
| Observed null-rate fraction | 0.40 | illustrative — replace with account data |
| Residual value for nulls | 0.00 | illustrative |
| Output | Result |
|---|---|
| Expected value per install | 0.9000 |
| Haircut versus intended bid | 0.6000 |
Facts versus limits
| Field | Evidence |
|---|---|
| CV may be absent | Apple postback parameter docs |
| Market null-rate average | Not claimed |
Download the lab CSV.
