Time-to-first-pay after soft-currency drought events
Analysis
By Isaac Turner, Measurement Editor — 1 min read
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Drought events can inflate early ROAS then collapse retention. Measure time-to-first-pay with cohort on-day IAE — synthetic lab.
Soft-currency drought events can pull first purchases forward and then damage retention. Measure when first pay happens, not only whether it happens.
Method (documented tools)
Using AppsFlyer Cohort (body-read 20 September 2026), compare on-day first-purchase IAE conversions across cohort days 0–7 for drought-week installs versus matched non-drought weeks. Cumulative unique first purchasers by D7 answers “did they pay”; the on-day series answers “did the drought only move pay earlier”.
Labelled synthetic contrast
| Cohort day of first `af_purchase` | Share of eventual D7 payers (control week) | Share in drought week |
|---|---|---|
| D0 | 40% | 62% |
| D1 | 25% | 18% |
| D2–D3 | 20% | 12% |
| D4–D7 | 15% | 8% |
Drought week shows front-loaded pay. Pair with D7 retention before raising bids. Figures are synthetic teaching inputs.
Facts vs limits
| Fact | Limit |
|---|---|
| On-day vs cumulative IAE views are documented | “Drought” is a studio economy label |
| Synthetic distribution is labelled | No genre time-to-first-pay benchmark is claimed |
| Retention should be read on the same cohorts | Causality still needs an experimental design |
Draft prepared 20 September 2026. Local expansion-500 file; human editorial review pending. No CMS write.
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