Pity-adjusted expected value versus player-facing banner claims

Banner EV claims fail when pity is omitted from the math. JOGA’s guideline already defines 推定金額 (estimated amount) as the expectation implied by configured rates — use that language, then show what pity does to the same banner.

Definitional anchor

JOGA section 3(1)a (guideline PDF, body-read 20 September 2026) refers to the estimated amount to obtain a rare item as the amount calculated as an expectation from the configured提供割合. That is a rate-only expectation unless your live system also applies pity.

Labelled synthetic lab

Single-pull price 160 currency units. Featured rare base rate 0.6% without pity. Hard pity guarantees the featured rare at pull 90 if not obtained earlier (teaching rule).

Exact pity-adjusted expectation needs the full rate table and pity algorithm. The operator point: a banner that quotes only the rate-only EV while the live system has hard pity (or vice versa) is a mismatched claim. Replace synthetic rates with the live banner table before any public math.

Facts vs limits

Download the operator card.

Draft prepared 20 September 2026. Local expansion-500 file; human editorial review pending. No CMS write.