Pre-reg cohort quality vs post-launch paid cohort quality
Illustrative lab separating Google Play pre-registration install cohorts from post-launch paid UA cohorts using Play’s conversion definition.
Pre-registration users are not a proxy for paid UA quality. Google Play defines pre-registration Conversions as pre-registered users who installed within 14 days of availability (pre-registration help). That cohort opted into a listing before gameplay existed; post-launch paid cohorts responded to a different creative and store state.
Define the calculation (illustrative)
Keep columns separate:
prereg_installs,prereg_d7_retainers,prereg_d7_payerspaid_installs,paid_d7_retainers,paid_d7_payers
Rates:
d7_retention = retainers / installsd7_payer_rate = payers / installs
Never blend the denominators when judging channel payback.
Worked synthetic example
| Cohort | Installs | D7 retainers | D7 retention | D7 payers | D7 payer rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-reg (14-day converts) | 20000 | 8000 | 0.40 | 600 | 0.030 |
| Post-launch paid | 20000 | 5000 | 0.25 | 900 | 0.045 |
Pre-reg looks stronger on retention; paid looks stronger on early payer rate. Either can be true for a title — the lab’s point is the split, not a universal ranking.
Limits
Synthetic inputs only. Play’s conversion window is the official definition used for the pre-reg column. MMP revenue bridging is out of scope.
