Creative concept half-life by F2P genre (operator method, labelled synthetic)

Analysis

By UA Ledger staff1 min read

Creative concept half-life by F2P genre (operator method, labelled synthetic)

Operator method to estimate creative concept half-life from your export—labelled synthetic example only. Not a purchased vendor decay chart.

Teams need a method to measure concept half-life, not a purchased average. Define half-life as the days until a concept’s primary efficiency metric falls to 50% of its launch-week baseline inside your account. Use MMP or network exports; keep AppsFlyer revenue event names straight if the metric is ROAS (ad revenue attribution guide). Meta Ad Library can confirm whether sibling creatives stayed active—it is not the efficiency source.

Method

  1. Group creatives into concepts (hook + mechanic), not individual edits.
  2. Fix OS, geo, optimisation goal.
  3. Baseline = mean IPM or CPI or ROAS for days 0–6 after concept launch (state which).
  4. Half-life = first day d where rolling 3-day mean ≤ 0.5 × baseline.
  5. Report per genre label you assign (4X, survivor, match-3, idle, gacha)—labels are yours, not a vendor taxonomy claim.

Synthetic example (one concept)

Reference table
DayEfficiency index (baseline=1.0)
01.00
30.82
70.61
100.48
140.40

Half-life ≈ 10 days in this labelled series (first day index ≤ 0.5).

Reference table
OutputResult
baseline_index1.0
half_life_days10
index_at_half_life0.48

Facts versus limits

Reference table
FactLimit
Method is reproducibleSynthetic curve is not a genre law
Library confirms presenceNot CPI
No vendor chart reproducedIntentional

Download the CSV.

Research checked 20 September 2026. Local draft; human editorial review pending. Author null.

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