Creative concept half-life by F2P genre (operator method, labelled synthetic)
Operator method to estimate creative concept half-life from your export—illustrative example only. Not a purchased vendor decay chart.
Teams need a method to measure concept half-life, not a purchased average. Define half-life as the days until a concept’s primary efficiency metric falls to 50% of its launch-week baseline inside your account. Use MMP or network exports; keep AppsFlyer revenue event names straight if the metric is ROAS (ad revenue attribution guide). Meta Ad Library can confirm whether sibling creatives stayed active—it is not the efficiency source.
Method
- Group creatives into concepts (hook + mechanic), not individual edits.
- Fix OS, geo, optimisation goal.
- Baseline = mean IPM or CPI or ROAS for days 0–6 after concept launch (state which).
- Half-life = first day
dwhere rolling 3-day mean ≤ 0.5 × baseline. - Report per genre label you assign (4X, survivor, match-3, idle, gacha)—labels are yours, not a vendor taxonomy claim.
Synthetic example (one concept)
| Day | Efficiency index (baseline=1.0) |
|---|---|
| 0 | 1.00 |
| 3 | 0.82 |
| 7 | 0.61 |
| 10 | 0.48 |
| 14 | 0.40 |
Half-life ≈ 10 days in this labelled series (first day index ≤ 0.5).
| Output | Result |
|---|---|
| baseline_index | 1.0 |
| half_life_days | 10 |
| index_at_half_life | 0.48 |
Facts versus limits
| Fact | Limit |
|---|---|
| Method is reproducible | Synthetic curve is not a genre law |
| Library confirms presence | Not CPI |
| No vendor chart reproduced | Intentional |
Download the CSV.
